Commodity Market Report
Macro Oils short-term outlook: OPEC postpones decision, Venezuela supply risk, demand holds up
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Report summary
Prices are nudging up as the Venezuelan crisis continues longer than many expected. The US is no longer speaking of a movement of its troops into Venezuela, while Russia and China have sent some soldiers into the beleaguered country. For now President Maduro remains in office with no clear signs of a quick resolution of the standoff. Our latest assessment of OPEC production shows intentional supply reductions by the Gulf nations to balance the market are outpaced by sanctions-related losses from Iran and Venezuela. With oil prices edging up toward $70 per barrel for Brent, oil market considerations could drive the US decision on whether or not to renew the waivers.
Table of contents
- Global supply: non-OPEC strength countered by OPEC uncertainty
- Non-OPEC supply: upward revisions add to overall strength of supply
- US Lower 48: anticipated slowdown in Q1 2019, but increasing completion activity in H2 2019
- Bakken and Rockies production rises despite pipeline constraints and contentious regulatory environment in Colorado
- OPEC geopolitical woes lead to new 2019 lows
- Venezuela: plunged into darkness
- Libya: El Sharara production ramps up
- Iran: oil exports continue to fall
- Global demand: steadying growth following slow start to 2019
- Mounting concerns as global economy slowly loses steam
- Plummeting demand in Venezuela as gasoline and diesel shortages occur
- Iranian demand to remain weak, but fuel oil provides an upside
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