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Macro oils short-term outlook: September 2017 oil price forecast

Macro oils short-term outlook: September 2017 oil price forecast

Report summary

Hurricane Harvey slammed the US Gulf Coast on 25 August hitting US production, refining capacity and demand.  The impact was initially bearish for WTI with a peak of 4.5 million b/d of refining capacity shut down. In early September, both Brent and WTI have strengthened on reports OPEC and Russia are considering an extension of the production cut agreement beyond the current period to end-Q1 2018. The OPEC rumours do not have a material impact on our 2018 forecast because we have been assuming OPEC would extend the deal through 2018 since July. If the OPEC production deal were not extended beyond Q1 2018, prices would drop much further in 2018 than in our base case view for Brent to average $50 per barrel in 2018.

What's included?

This report includes 5 file(s)

  • Macro oils short term outlook September 2017 slidepack.pdf PDF - 2.44 MB
  • Macro oils short-term outlook September 2017 Executive Summary.pdf PDF - 190.43 KB
  • Macro oils short term outlook September 2017 price outlook.xls XLS - 217.00 KB
  • Macro oils short term outlook September 2017 supply demand.xls XLS - 963.00 KB
  • Macro oils short term outlook September 2017 slide charts.xls XLS - 848.50 KB


The oil industry is one of the largest in the world, with high revenues and costs, and major investments that have long lead times. The short-term outlook captures key industry developments, the impact of events and geopolitical influences on oil prices.

This Oil Markets Short Term Outlook report provides detailed fundamentals of supply and demand.

Crude oil investors can use this report to make short-term tactical decisions and assess the behaviour of industry players and governments.

Wood Mackenzie gives you an informed, independent view on oil prices and the key drivers and trends impacting the oil market. Our highly experienced analysts are based in the key oil producing and consuming regions they analyse, providing detailed field-by-field data and demand forecasts driven by country and sector developments.

Our trusted insight helps you deliver successful growth strategies.

  • Executive summary
    • Rising output in Libya and Nigeria poses challenge for OPEC
    • US onshore output growth is slowing in the short-term
    • Meanwhile new type curves strengthen our overall forecast for US Lower 48 outlook
    • Hurricane Harvey puts a crimp on demand growth in Q3 but not for long
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