Macro oils short-term outlook: September 2023 Report

Commodity Market Report 08 September 2023

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Report summary

Prices rose during August, with Brent increasing to an average of $86.20/bbl, up $6.10/bbl from the July average. The strength in the market during August reflected the impact of the tighter H2 2023 market we have been expecting. The early September announcement extending Saudi Arabia’s 1 million b/d voluntary production cut and Russia’s export cut through the end of 2023 jolted the market higher, with Brent moving above $90/bbl from the high $80s. Highlights of our Monthly Update include: • Global demand: Growth remains steady despite a bumpy road ahead • Assessing the impact of Saudi Arabia and Russia’s rollover of production and export cuts • US Lower 48: strong growth in Permian oil production; but rig count continues to fall • Iran: upward revision to reflect recent production gains

Outlook for 2024 and 2025
Global Supply: Saudi Arabia extend production cuts to end of 2023
- Non-OPEC: strong growth in US NGLs and US Lower 48 drive upgrades in 2023 and 2024
OPEC supply: Saudi Arabia to extend voluntary cut of 1 million b/d to end-2023
Global demand: Growth remains steady despite a bumpy road ahead
Liquids demand by key markets
- China
- United States
- Europe
Global outlook for 2024
Global outlook for 2025
Risks to the outlook