North America Crude Market 10-year investment horizon outlook

Eight months into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the impacts on the North American crude value chain have been notable with likely sticky dynamics set to shift the outlook for North American crude in the global context for the next decade. Shifting European refinery crude sourcing patterns, along with an upgraded view on US supply growth despite staunchly capital disciplined E&Ps, lay a pathway for a final 2025-2030 midstream investment wave in US midcontinent and Permian regions. A more aggressive view on PADD III refining capacity rationalization in this view lifts crude export volumes and reinforces the need for coastal midstream investment to provide unfettered access for US crude into the global market.