North America Crude Markets short-term outlook: April 2024

TMX is in the last mile of the marathon. The long-awaited system is expected to finally enter commercial service by the end of Q2. But just how soon will the new pipeline come online and alleviate egress capacity out of Western Canada? Trans Mountain recently announced an expected commencement date of 1 May. In this update, we address if this timeline is realistic or ambitious based on remaining work and necessary regulatory approvals. Meanwhile, the US Gulf Coast began emerging from a heavy Spring maintenance season in March. More work continues in PADD III, while other regions are in earlier stages of their respective turnaround seasons. After suppressed domestic crude runs drove record US waterborne exports in February, rebounding domestic refinery utilization is expected to shift US balances and prices through the Summer. With a mixed bag of some maintenance projects concluding while others remain underway, how will US crude runs and exports develop in the coming months?