North America Crude Markets short-term outlook: August 2023

In this update a softer US L48 supply growth view, especially in the Permian, coupled with a boosted US refining view in 2024 and 2025 naturally have ripple effects across the North American crude value chain. In this report, we assess the net impact of these dynamic variables in terms of trade flows, inland and coastal price differentials, and US export volumes. Other topics addressed in this report include: • A forward look on how a buying spree from Asian refineries might lead to a strong US export rebound in August • Update on Dakota Access Environmental Impact study and scenario analysis • Update on Western Canadian fundamentals as supply rebounds from multi-year lows • Construction update on the Westridge Terminal – which will facilitate waterborne exports via TMX