North America Crude Markets short-term outlook: July 2023
In this outlook, we roll out our view to 2025. The extension highlights continued gradual US L48 growth, again driven by the Permian Basin. We forecast US waterborne exports rising alongside production, exiting 2025 near 5 million b/d. However, our 2024 production forecast was downgraded due to recent declines in rig count. In this outlook, we also re-visit key USGC project timelines. Importantly, we have advanced the start-up timeline for the Gray Oak pipeline expansion to Q1 2024. In this outlook, we assess how this and other project timelines will affect Permian-to-Gulf Coast and export trends through the extended short-term horizon through 2025.