Commodity Market Report
North America crude markets short-term outlook: July 2024
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Report summary
In this outlook, we roll out our view to 2026. The extension highlights continued gradual US L48 growth, again driven by the Permian Basin. We forecast US waterborne exports rising alongside production, exiting 2026 above 5 million b/d. In this outlook, we highlight various trends in our extended forecast through 2026, including regional supply growth, US crude runs, waterborne exports, and the related impacts on key egress corridors and regional price differentials. In this report, we also highlight trends that we have observed in our real-time supply chain monitoring the early days of TMX service. We discuss how these observations inform our forward-looking expectations for TMX and broader Canadian crude trade flows.
Table of contents
- US L48 Supply: new records and efficiency gains
- WCSB update: how full is TMX?
- US refinery runs: margins and product demand
- US exports and WTI/Brent outlook: normalization through the summer
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