Commodity Market Report
North America Crude Markets short-term outlook: June 2023
Report summary
With the start-up of TMX around the corner, Enbridge announced the long-awaited settlement agreement of tolling for the Mainline system. We estimate Hardisty-to-Chicago tolls will be ~$0.55/bbl lower through 2028 compared to the previous tolling period. In this report, we analyze various WCS netbacks and assess if/how the new Mainline tolling affects the competitive landscape for WCSB egress routes once TMX comes online. Meanwhile, WTI Midland was added to the Brent pricing basket beginning in May. The inclusion supports the continuation of an ongoing trend of elevated US exports to Europe, which was largely spurred by European refiners seeking alternatives to Russian crude. With US-to-Europe shipments already reaching record highs in recent months, we discuss our expectations for export volumes going forward.
Table of contents
- US Lower 48 production shows strong growth in March, driven by Permian Delaware basin
- Lower 48 oil rig count and frac fleet activity drops
-
Rig additions slow in Q2 2023
- For full report please see slidepack in the download section.
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