Commodity Market Report

North America Crude Markets short-term outlook: March 2021

08 March 2021

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08 March 2021

North America Crude Markets short-term outlook: March 2021

Report summary

All market eyes this month were on the surprise cautious approach taken by OPEC+ in returning production to the market. This notably sent WTI prices briefly above $67/bbl for the first time in nearly five years. Highlights North America Crude Market short term outlook include: • How has the USGC oils complex rebounded from the late February freeze? • Latest views on L48 supply post corporate 4Q earnings season commentary • Adjusting expansion capacity of the Keystone pipeline in 2021 – what are the effects on WCS pricing? • Latest views on impacts of a tighter than expected global market on US inventories

The Texas freeze
US Lower 48: winter storm impact was severe but short-lived
- Impact of severe winter storm
- Operator guidance
Permian production quickly rebounds
Gulf Coast bound pipeline flows restored
Gulf Coast refining capacity lags behind
Overall winter storm inventory impact neutral to slight positive