North America Crude Markets short-term outlook: May 2022

Six months of historic US SPR releases begin in May. The US ban on Russian crude took effect in late April. Although both of these are in the early days, changes in trade patterns have already begun to emerge; US exports to Europe surged to a record high in April while imports of Russian barrels into PADD 1 dropped off entirely. In this monthly update, we explore early impacts of the SPR releases and Russian crude ban and evaluate how we expect flow shifts to develop going forward. Other topics include: • US supply outlook with DUC inventories at a record low • April blizzards in North Dakota: impacts to Bakken supply and prices • Effects of Canadian Upgrader maintenance ramping up in May