North America Crude Markets short-term outlook: November 2022

WCS differentials in October blew out to levels not seen since the depths of the 2018 bottleneck. A multitude of drivers have caused the recent discount widening, from product dynamics in the Gulf Coast to low water levels along the Mississippi River. All of this comes at a times when rebounding WCSB supply is expected to drive egress capacity utilization higher. In this report, we analyze the various factors weighing on WCS and assess how each of them are likely to impact price differentials moving forward. Other topics addressed in this report include: • A deep dive into recent low water levels along the Mississippi River – and the company commentary on regional refining • US exports reached another record in October, but SPR releases are set to wind down into year-end • How will the looming EU ban on Russian oil affect the WTI/Brent differential and US export volumes?