Commodity Market Report
North America crude markets short-term outlook: November 2024
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Report summary
The two largest supply regions in North America are in growth mode. Permian crude output is expected to climb 300+ kb/d annually in both 2025 and 2026. But recent growth has already pushed egress utilization higher and pressured Midland price differentials. Capacity expansions are on the horizon. Will they come online in time to facilitate expected supply growth? In this outlook, we assess what opportunities and risks lie ahead in these key regions as supply ticks higher.
Table of contents
- Mainline expansion extends the runway for Western Canadian supply growth
- Permian supply growth pressures WTI-Midland diffs ahead of pipeline expansions
- Lower 48 oil production will grow at 3% annually through 2026
- US crude runs expected to begin rebound from muted maintenance peak
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