Oil market pain: checking on supply and demand progress Report

Insight 20 March 2020

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Report summary

Events are moving swiftly since the 6 March OPEC+ meeting broke up without an agreement to cut production. Since then oil demand outside China is teetering on the verge of a sharp drop similar to what China saw in Q1 2020. On the supply side, Saudi Arabia swiftly slashed its oil prices after the OPEC+ meeting and says it plans to boost supply to 12.3 million b/d in April, by utilising storage releases. As a result, Brent prices have fallen sharply, to below $30 per barrel, from levels above $50 before the meeting. Macro Oils plans to release our updated short-term outlook on 30 March rather than early April. This Insight provides highlights of developments including: • Saudi pricing and production • OPEC and non-OPEC supply including Russia’s plans • Potential impact of low prices on non-OPEC production • US and China demand.

Saudi Arabia’s swift response: Official Selling Prices and rising production
Other OPEC producers and OPEC+ partners
What matters to rebalance the market: reduce supply!
Global oil demand: The pendulum swings

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Regional decline rates: North America, Asia and Latin America saw most pronounced impact from 2014/2015 price crash. Analysis as of our H2 2019 long term outlook – 2020-22 will change
China’s highway traffic volume changes
Coal consumption by major coastal power plants (Day 0 = Chinese New Year)
China’s air traffic volume
U.S. Gasoline Demand, Year-on-Year Change