OPEC’s pain will shift to gain

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11 February 2019

OPEC’s pain will shift to gain

Report summary

OPEC is set to regain its dominance as the leading source of new oil supplies in the late 2020s as total non-OPEC supply growth plateaus around 2025, well before demand peaks. Our oil market service Macro Oils long term forecast shows OPEC's importance to the market will shift over the next decade from restraining production currently, to needing to grow capacity to meet demand. OPEC producers will hold sway over the market as the key source of growth through the mid-2030s, when oil demand peaks as the energy transition drives fuel efficiency gains and electrification of transport. However, non-OPEC producers will capture the bulk of contestable demand in the near term, driven primarily by increasing US tight oil production. This Insight explores the changing dynamics of the long term oil market fundamentals.

Table of contents

  • OPEC to remain under pressure in short term
  • US shale to peak in 2025
  • Near-term conventional non-OPEC resilience will peter out post-2030
  • OPEC also faces industry challenges
  • Can OPEC overcome the challenges?

Tables and charts

This report includes 3 images and tables including:

  • Year-on-year change in global production capacity
  • US Lower 48 crude and condensate production
  • Downside risks to demand

What's included

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    OPEC’s pain will shift to gain

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