Insight

Seasonality of stock changes

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Report summary

Stock builds in early 2015 and 2016 has overshadowed a stronger than average draw for the last four months as the oil price correction could be entering a third phase of crude and product stock draws. One sign of a balancing oil market is a decline in the days of demand covered by oil stock inventories. The US may not return to its historical days of coverage because: (1) US produced barrels show up sooner in working inventory, and thus days of coverage, earlier than barrels on waterborne tankers and (2) removal of US crude oil export ban could inflate stocks held due to a storage cost advantage and ability to re-export.

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