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The end of structural dieselisation in Europe?

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24 September 2015

The end of structural dieselisation in Europe?

Report summary

As European countries' support of diesel fuel in the road sector has come under greater scrutiny, many interested parties have begun to speculate what would be the implications of ending such support. 

Table of contents

    • Why has diesel use become a concern?
    • Why retail fuel tax equalisation?
    • The Wood Mackenzie Base Case
    • So what would be the results of retail fuel tax equalisation?
    • What would be the impact of this on the overall car stock?
    • What would happen to the market for diesel cars if retail diesel fuel taxes were raised to the same as those on gasoline on a calorific basis?
      • European retail fuel prices in per litre with adjusted retail tax levels, H1 2015
      • EU average cost of driving per kilometre in cents, H1 2015
    • What would be the impact on Europe's refiners of tax equalisation on a volume basis?

Tables and charts

This report includes 24 images and tables including:

  • European car sales by segment
  • Fuel efficiency of new gasoline and diesel cars in the EU, litres per 100 km
  • EU Passenger car stock - base case
  • The end of structural dieselisation in Europe?: Image 4
  • EU Passenger car fuel demand - base case
  • EU Passenger car fuel demand as % - base case
  • European retail fuel prices in per litre, H1 2015
  • EU average cost of driving per kilometre in cents, H1 2015
  • Estimated cost of driving a diesel BMW 3 series as a % of driving a gasoline BMW 3 series in the EU, H1 2015 pricing basis
  • Estimated cost of driving a diesel car as a % of driving a gasoline car pre-tax change in the EU
  • The end of structural dieselisation in Europe?: Image 11
  • EU estimated percentage of drivers by kilometres driven per year
  • Expected growth in the gasoline car stock by segment as a result of tax equalisation
  • Share of diesel cars in new registrations compared to retail diesel price discount to gasoline in European markets
  • EU New registrations by fuel as % of total (new case)
  • EU Car stock by fuel (new case)
  • EU Road fuel demand - new case
  • EU Change in road fuel demand from base case
  • EU Gasoline trade balance under base and new case
  • EU Diesel/gasoil trade balance under base and new case
  • The end of structural dieselisation in Europe?: Image 19
  • The end of structural dieselisation in Europe?: Image 20
  • The end of structural dieselisation in Europe?: Image 21
  • The end of structural dieselisation in Europe?: Image 22

What's included

This report contains:

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    The end of structural dieselisation in Europe?

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