Insight

The oil market needs exploration to deliver more reserves

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19 September 2018

The oil market needs exploration to deliver more reserves

Report summary

Exploration is under pressure post- oil price crash, but is it delivering enough to meet long-term oil supply needs? In this insight, we delve into exploration performance pre- and post-crash, the impact this has on the long-term oil supply outlook and how project optimisation affects production in the short term. Key takeaways from our analysis include: 1.) Exploration is not delivering the commercial volumes required in the long term 2.) More exploration drilling is needed in the near term to reverse this falling volume trend 3.) Discovered commercial volumes need to return closer to pre-crash levels to meet long-term supply expectations 4.) Production profiles for discoveries made post- oil price crash are becoming more aggressive as project optimisation drives short-term gains

Table of contents

  • Exploration is not delivering the commercial volumes required in the long term
  • More exploration drilling is required in the near term to reverse this falling volume trend
  • Yet-to-find at risk: without a return to higher average volumes discovered pre- oil price crash, a production shortfall will become a reality in the second half of the 2020s
  • Production profiles for discoveries made post- oil price crash are shifting

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