Will Mexico shift from gasoline to crude imports? Report

Insight 20 September 2021

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Report summary

Mexico is at a crossroads; one path will lead it toward gasoline self-sufficiency and the other toward the well-known trail of imports dependence. The path of gasoline self-sufficiency requires both refinery sector investment and operational changes, and additionally could affect Maya crude export levels. In this insight, we explore our base case and two scenarios to answer the following questions: • What refinery investments are needed to meet Mexico’s gasoline self-sufficiency goal? • What operational conditions (utilisation, refinery yields) are necessary for domestic gasoline production to meet growing demand? • What is the danger of Maya crude exports if the goal is achieved?

The challenge
How import-dependent is Mexico to meet domestic gasoline demand?
If the goal is to achieve gasoline self-sufficiency, what are the investment proposals and the strategy to achieve it?
Scenario analysis: How can Mexico’s refining sector achieve gasoline self-sufficiency?
Key takeaways- How feasible are both forecasted scenarios?
Conclusions