With or Without You: A look at the market implications surrounding the fate of the Keystone XL pipeline

The long-beleaguered Keystone XL Canadian crude pipeline project faces the next threat to success in the November 3rd US presidential election. A victory by incumbent President Trump, who re-granted a critical permit as one of his first acts as President in 2017, would presumably yield four more years for the project to continue fighting court challenges and permitting battles. A Biden victory will likely close the door on the project once and for all. In this insight we explore market go/no-go scenarios around Keystone XL including: • Impacts to regional Western Canadian pricing • Impacts to competing North American crude infrastructure • Impacts to NYMEX trading hub in Cushing, Oklahoma