Insight

Can RGGI states avoid 'leaking' carbon emissions to their neighbors?

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The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) to date has been successful at reducing emissions by funding energy efficiency and incentivizing the closure of coal plants. In December, the RGGI states updated the program to extend beyond 2020 with the goal of lowering power sector CO2 emissions 30% between 2020 and 2030. However, because few coal plants remain within the RGGI footprint, Wood Mackenzie’s modeling shows RGGI’s declining cap shifting generation and emissions from within RGGI states to adjacent states and provinces, potentially even raising overall CO2 emissions.

Table of contents

  • Key Takeaways
  • Introduction
  • Valuing RGGI CO 2 allowances
  • Why RGGI prices are poised to rise
  • Leakage challenges intended CO 2 reductions
  • After coal-to-gas switching – the only effective way to further reduce power sector emissions is to reduce Net Fossil Demand
  • Caveats and Conclusions

Tables and charts

This report includes 4 images and tables including:

  • The RGGI Footprint
  • Historical/forecast RGGI carbon Allowance prices (2017 $/short-ton)
  • Forecast change in generator carbon emissions if RGGI was canceled
  • Forecast RGGI Power Demand and Generation (TWh)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    can_decarbonization_trends_be_slowed_naprs_no_carbon_case_reports_h2_2017_pr.pdf

    PDF 1.54 MB