Insight
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7 Pages

Can solar power save the day in California this summer?


Can solar power save the day in California this summer?

Report summary

The natural gas leak that occurred at the Aliso Canyon gas storage facility (Aliso Canyon) in Southern California earlier this year means Aliso Canyon will probably not be available to meet any peak natural gas needs for the remainder of the year at a minimum.   The outage may limit the ability of some gas-fired generators in the Los Angeles basin to operate during up to 16 days this summer.

The California ISO (CAISO) assigns high capacity value to solar generators, and expedited deployment of new solar has been proposed as one way to help mitigate the loss of Aliso Canyon.  In this Insight Wood Mackenzie provides our own analysis indicating that solar capacity value is much lower than CAISO assumes.   Peak day analysis also shows that additional solar will do little to reduce peak hourly gas demand.  However, new solar may help offset the Aliso Canyon outage by reducing gas-fired generation earlier in the day, thus making that gas available when hourly gas-fired generation peaks. 

What's included?

This report includes 1 file(s)

  • Can solar power save the day in California this summer? PDF - 551.71 KB 7 Pages, 1 Tables, 2 Figures

Description

This Power Markets Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the implications for those involved.

For participants, suppliers and advisors who want to look at the trends, risks and issues within the power industry, this report gives you an expert opinion and analysis to help inform your decision making.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts provide a strong reference, enabling a quick and concise description about the relationship between this event and its implications.

Underpinned by our extensive gas, coal and oil markets research, Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts provide a reliable foundation for investments and corporate planning. We help you understand key regulatory and economic drivers, and emerging industry tends in the power industry.

  • Key Takeaways
  • Background and Introduction
  • CAISO’s Solar NQC Estimates
  • Wood Mackenzie’s 2016 Solar NQC Analysis
  • Peak Demand Day Analysis and Alison Canyon Implications
  • Conclusions

In this report there are 3 tables or charts, including:

  • Key Takeaways
  • Background and Introduction
  • CAISO’s Solar NQC Estimates
    • California ISO 2016 Monthly Solar NQC Factors (%)
  • Wood Mackenzie’s 2016 Solar NQC Analysis
    • 2016 Solar NQC Estimates for the California ISO System
  • Peak Demand Day Analysis and Alison Canyon Implications
    • CAISO 9/10/2015 Hourly Generation with Solar Adjusted to 2016 Levels
  • Conclusions
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