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China power markets long-term outlook H1 2019

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23 September 2019

China power markets long-term outlook H1 2019

Report summary

China’s energy market never falls short of big changes. In the past year we have seen renewable pricing moved from feed-in tariffs to competitive auctions, spot trading of electricity being piloted in eight provinces, and the launch of the renewable portfolio standard after three rounds of public consultation. China also plans to scrap coal-power pricing indexation mechanism and expose pricing of coal electricity to market forces. China is riding the wave of energy transition to make its energy landscape cleaner and more efficient. In this long-term outlook we bring the latest view on China’s power capacity and generation mix and examine evolution of the renewable competitiveness.

Table of contents

  • China's power demand to slow in 2019 on the back of trade war escalation
  • Ever cheaper renewables and storage are piling more pressure on gas power
  • New policy to help renewables penetrate higher but enforcement could be weak
  • Power liberalisation is making progress but still a long way to go
  • Key data tables
  • Key facts and changes
  • Environmental and energy policies
  • Carbon trading market
    • Transmission tariff reform
    • Incremental distribution grid reform
    • Market-based transaction
    • Direct power sales
    • Bidding-based market transaction
  • Regional grids
  • Generation
  • Coal
  • Gas
  • Hydro: run-of-river and reservoir
  • Hydro: pumped storage
  • Nuclear
  • Energy Storage
  • Renewables: wind
  • Renewables: solar
  • Renewable generation
  • Total power generation
  • Reserve margin
  • Power plant investment
    • Power transmission
    • Power flows
  • Levelised cost of electricity (LCOE)
  • On-grid tariffs
  • Coal-power pricing indexation mechanism
  • Gas-power pricing indexation mechanism

Tables and charts

This report includes 37 images and tables including:

  • China power available capacity
  • China power market balance
  • China gas demand
  • Key facts in power market regulation
  • Key changes to power analysis from H2 2018 publication
  • Economic Indicators
  • Pollutant discharge standards for coal-fired plants
  • Carbon emission under different prices
  • Major players in China's power generation market 2018 (MW)
  • Top 7 power utilities' capacity by fuel type in 2018
  • EV power consumption by region
  • Forecast power demand vs. GDP
  • Forecast power demand vs. elasticity
  • Forecast power demand by region
  • Forecast power demand by sector
  • 2018 installed capacity by region
  • 2018 installed capacity by fuel
  • Installed capacity by fuel 2010-2040
  • Installed capacity by region 2010-2040
  • Combined cycle gas turbine installed capacity by region
  • Gas demand in power by region
  • Wind capacity by region
  • Solar capacity by region
  • Power generation by fuel
  • Power generation by region
  • China grid reserve margins
  • Incremental capacity by fuel
  • Power plant investment by fuel
  • China averaged LCOE by technology
  • China averaged capital costs by technology
  • Historical on-grid tariff by fuel
  • Historical on-grid tariff by region
  • China key power demand uncertainties
  • China key power supply uncertainties
  • China inter-regional key power transmission infrastructure by 2020
  • Power flows from major exporters
  • Power flows from major importers

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    China power data_H1_2019.xlsx

    XLSX 511.18 KB

  • Document

    China power markets long-term outlook H1 2019

    PDF 1.45 MB

  • Document

    China power markets long-term outlook H1 2019

    ZIP 2.47 MB