Commodity Market Report

Europe power markets long-term outlook H1 2015

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05 August 2015

Europe power markets long-term outlook H1 2015

Report summary

The continuing pursuit of environmental targets presents a mounting challenge to Europe’s power markets and the companies operating in them.  With power demand suffering from the prolonged after-effects of economic recession and strong growth in incentive-driven renewable supplies, wholesale power prices are experiencing a period of significant weakness and are well below the level required to incentivise investments in conventional plant.  

Table of contents

    • Pollutant control and renewables reduce the role of coal
    • Power supply from gas to peak in the mid-2020s
    • Renewable supply to the fore
    • The challenges of de-carbonising power supply
    • Slow recovery and continued weak demand in mature markets
    • Industrial transition provides contrasting growth prospects
    • Residential and commercial demand offset by efficiency improvements
    • Generation capacity
      • Low carbon growth puts pressure on conventional technologies
      • Rising costs lead a reassessment of support measures
    • Post-2020 policy targets guide investment
    • Margins weaken as conventional capacity is withdrawn
    • Generation output
      • Gas replaces lost output from coal, oil and nuclear
      • Substantial decarbonisation as renewable growth continues
      • Coal's decline gathers pace as capacity retirements mount
    • Fuel & emissions cost uncertainty
    • Expansion of nuclear new-build
    • Renewable power costs and support – drivers or barriers to growth?

Tables and charts

This report includes 11 images and tables including:

  • European power supply by source
  • Renewable electricity supply and targets
  • Electricity demand
  • Break-even costs of new-build technologies (LRMC)
  • Capacity market and strategic reserve arrangements in European power markets
  • Long-run economics of gas and coal generators – fuel and emissions cost parity
  • Growth in renewable generation capacity and share of total supply
  • Cost of renewable support per unit of total power supply (2012)
  • Power supply by source
  • Carbon intensity of power supply (ETS markets only)
  • Power supply - change between forecasts

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Europe Power H1 2015.xls

    XLS 4.35 MB

  • Document

    Europe power markets long-term outlook H1 2015

    PDF 436.94 KB

  • Document

    Europe power markets long-term outlook H1 2015

    ZIP 1.10 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 118.30 KB

  • Document


    PDF 89.90 KB

  • Document


    PDF 199.15 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 100.83 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 106.42 KB