Feeling the heat: Analyzing the California ISO's near-record peak day and implications for renewable energy goals Report

Insight 26 September 2017

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Report summary

On September 1 2017, an extreme late-summer heat wave hit California and much of the west coast. The heat wave included normally temperate coastal cities in addition to inland areas. For example, San Francisco set an all-time high temperature record of 106 degrees, beating the old record by 3 degrees. In spite of this, the California ISO (CAISO) peak demand for the day still did not exceed the record peak of 50,270 MW set on July 24, 2006. In this Insight, we examine the CAISO demand and supply dynamics of 9/1/2017, focusing on the hourly performance of traditional generators and renewable technologies. We then extrapolate that information to see what it can tell us about a high renewable future in California.

September 2017
Introduction
Part 1: A Detailed look at the CAISO system on Sep 1, 2017
- Renewables and Energy efficiency impacts on Peak demand
- Changing Reliability metrics: From System Peak to Net Peak
- Wind contribution to reliability on 9/1/2017
- Solar contribution to reliability on 9/1/2017
- Daily Net Peak now occurs on or after the final hour of solar output
- The changing role of imports and traditional generation sources
Part 2: Can 9/1/2017 provide clues about a 100% renewables future?
- Exploring the costs and opportunities of different renewable futures
- Renewable integration low-hanging fruit
Conclusion and Key Takeaways

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

Daily high temperatures at select locations
CAISO 9/1/2017 – Meeting 100% renewable over 24 hours
CAISO 9/1/2017 – 100% renewable future using surplus energy produced earlier in the year

CAISO 4/14/2017 Actual Hourly Generation and Demand
CAISO 4/14/2017 – 100% renewable future creating surplus for use later in the year
Highlights from 9/1/2017
CAISO 9/1/2017 Actual Hourly Generation and Demand
CAISO 4/14/2017 – 450% scenario