Impact of tariff scenarios on US renewable energy costs

This report extends our latest analysis on the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) across the US, assessing the competitiveness of onshore wind, solar, and battery storage under different tariff scenarios. We analyse all 50 states under five tariff scenarios: (1) Targeted tariff – 25% on Mexico/Canada, 10% on China, 25% on steel/aluminium. (2) Added copper tariff – 25% on imported copper. (3) Universal tariff – 25% on all imports, including steel, aluminium, and copper. (4) Full-scale trade war – 50% on all imports, including steel, aluminium, and copper. (5) US self-sufficiency in trade war – 50% on steel, aluminium, and copper, assuming all components are US-made. We assume no change in procurement strategies, calculating tariff impacts on the existing supply chain without forecasting shifts in renewables manufacturing.