Commodity Market Report

Indonesia power and renewables markets long-term outlook 2019

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31 July 2019

Indonesia power and renewables markets long-term outlook 2019

Report summary

Key report themes: 1) RUPTL reduces demand growth forecast to 6.42%, maintains renewables target of at least 23% of the energy mix by 2025 and takes advantage of wellhead natural gas. 2) New gas discovery at the Sakakemang PSC onshore South Sumatra. 3) Mixed news on the renewables front with the government announced to provide subsidy for geothermal projects on one hand and about 24 renewables projects risk termination on another hand.

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 63 images and tables including:

  • Indonesia power available capacity
  • Indonesia power market balance
  • Indonesia gas demand by sector
  • Key changes to analysis from H2 2018 publication
  • GDP forecast - Indonesia
  • Major energy legislation
  • Capacity mix: renewables vs non-renewables
  • Generation mix: renewables vs non-renewables
  • Renewable capacity by fuel
  • Renewable generation by fuel
  • Indonesia INDC target
  • Existing and planned capacity with peak load
  • Indonesia capacity by plant type and reserve margin
  • Breakeven cost (LRMC) based on technology (2020 prices)
  • Java Bali – new plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build using real levelised prices (2020-2045)
  • Sumatra/rest of Indonesia – new plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build using real levelised prices (2020-2045)
  • Power infrastructure – South Sumatra
  • Indonesia grid generation by fuel used
  • Java-Bali grid generation by fuel used
  • Sumatra grid generation by fuel used
  • Rest of Indonesia grid generation by fuel used
  • Java-Bali: capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
  • Sumatra: capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
  • Java Bali: intra-regional power transfers
  • Sumatra: intra-regional power transfers
  • PLN's average electricity prices*
  • PLN's electricity prices by segments
  • Java-Bali : average annual short-run generation costs
  • Sumatra : average annual short-run generation costs
  • Government subsidy to PLN under the Public Service Obligation
  • Java-Bali and Sumatra breakeven cost for power end users*
  • GDP growth assumptions for high and low case
  • Power demand sensitivity on gas
  • Sumatra coal growth for high and low case
  • Sumatra coal demand sensitivity on gas in power
  • Regional map
  • Indonesia’s energy policy and regulatory structure
  • Indonesia power market value chain
  • PPA reference ceiling prices for IPP projects
  • Renewable energy selling prices based on MEMR Regulation 50/2017
  • Expedited electricity licensing and permitting (presidential regulation 4/2016)
  • Java Bali capacity by plant type and reserve margin
  • Sumatra capacity by plant type and reserve margin
  • Rest of Indonesia available capacity
  • Rest of Indonesia reserve margin
  • Java-Bali 2020 merit order
  • Java-Bali 2040 merit order
  • Java-Bali 2030 merit order
  • Sumatra 2020 merit order
  • Sumatra 2030 merit order
  • Sumatra 2040 merit order
  • Indonesia provincial map
  • Power infrastructure – West and Central Java
  • Power infrastructure – East Java and Bali
  • Power infrastructure – Central Sumatra
  • Power infrastructure – Aceh and North Sumatra
  • Indonesia GDP growth and power sales growth
  • Indonesia power sales
  • Java-Bali: power transmission capacity across regions
  • Sumatra: power transmission capacity across regions
  • Java-Bali coal growth for high and low case
  • Java-Bali coal demand sensitivity on gas in power

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Indonesia_Power_Data.xls

    XLS 2.13 MB

  • Document

    Indonesia power and renewables markets long-term outlook 2019

    PDF 2.03 MB

  • Document

    Indonesia power and renewables markets long-term outlook 2019

    ZIP 2.23 MB

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