Commodity Market Report
Indonesia power and renewables markets long-term outlook 2019
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Report summary
Key report themes: 1) RUPTL reduces demand growth forecast to 6.42%, maintains renewables target of at least 23% of the energy mix by 2025 and takes advantage of wellhead natural gas. 2) New gas discovery at the Sakakemang PSC onshore South Sumatra. 3) Mixed news on the renewables front with the government announced to provide subsidy for geothermal projects on one hand and about 24 renewables projects risk termination on another hand.
Table of contents
-
Key developments
- RUPTL reduces demand growth forecast, maintains renewables target and takes advantage of wellhead natural gas
- New gas discovery at the Sakakemang PSC onshore South Sumatra
- Regional map
- Data summary
-
Key players
- Key offices
- Generation
- Transmission
- Distribution and retail
- Energy policy
-
Power market regulation
- Single-buyer model
- PPA prices
- Fuel mix
- Renewables
- Land acquisition and licensing
- Policy
- Renewables
- COP21 INDC target
- Indonesia capacity and reserve margin
-
Java capacity and reserve margin
- West Java
- Central Java
- East Java
- Bali
-
Sumatra capacity and reserve margin
- Aceh
- North Sumatra
- Central Sumatra
- South Sumatra
- Batam
-
Sumatra capacity and reserve margin
- Aceh
- North Sumatra
- Central Sumatra
- South Sumatra
- Batam
- West Kalimantan
- East Central South Kalimantan
- Sulawesi
- Papua, Timor, Maluku and Nusa Tenggara
- Appendix
-
Breakeven cost by technology
- Short-run marginal cost analysis
-
Java-Bali power transmission infrastructure
- Current power infrastructure in Java
-
Future power infrastructure in Java
- West Java transmission expansion
- South Sumatra to West Java
- East-Central Java to Bali
- Losses in Java
- Sumatra power transmission infrastructure
- Current power infrastructure in Sumatra
-
Future power infrastructure in Sumatra
- New trans-Sumatra transmission lines
- Possible link to Malaysia
- Losses in Sumatra
- Annual generation forecast
- Plant utilisation (capacity factor)
-
Transmission utilisation across regions
- Inter-regional transmission capacity
- Inter-regional power transfers
- End-user tariffs
- Average annual system short-run costs
- Breakeven cost forecast
- GDP sensitivity on gas demand (Java and Sumatra)
-
Coal sensitivity on gas demand
- Java-Bali
- Sumatra
Tables and charts
This report includes 63 images and tables including:
- Indonesia power available capacity
- Indonesia power market balance
- Indonesia gas demand by sector
- Key changes to analysis from H2 2018 publication
- GDP forecast - Indonesia
- Major energy legislation
- Capacity mix: renewables vs non-renewables
- Generation mix: renewables vs non-renewables
- Renewable capacity by fuel
- Renewable generation by fuel
- Indonesia INDC target
- Existing and planned capacity with peak load
- Indonesia capacity by plant type and reserve margin
- Breakeven cost (LRMC) based on technology (2020 prices)
- Java Bali – new plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build using real levelised prices (2020-2045)
- Sumatra/rest of Indonesia – new plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build using real levelised prices (2020-2045)
- Power infrastructure – South Sumatra
- Indonesia grid generation by fuel used
- Java-Bali grid generation by fuel used
- Sumatra grid generation by fuel used
- Rest of Indonesia grid generation by fuel used
- Java-Bali: capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
- Sumatra: capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
- Java Bali: intra-regional power transfers
- Sumatra: intra-regional power transfers
- PLN's average electricity prices*
- PLN's electricity prices by segments
- Java-Bali : average annual short-run generation costs
- Sumatra : average annual short-run generation costs
- Government subsidy to PLN under the Public Service Obligation
- Java-Bali and Sumatra breakeven cost for power end users*
- GDP growth assumptions for high and low case
- Power demand sensitivity on gas
- Sumatra coal growth for high and low case
- Sumatra coal demand sensitivity on gas in power
- Regional map
- Indonesia’s energy policy and regulatory structure
- Indonesia power market value chain
- PPA reference ceiling prices for IPP projects
- Renewable energy selling prices based on MEMR Regulation 50/2017
- Expedited electricity licensing and permitting (presidential regulation 4/2016)
- Java Bali capacity by plant type and reserve margin
- Sumatra capacity by plant type and reserve margin
- Rest of Indonesia available capacity
- Rest of Indonesia reserve margin
- Java-Bali 2020 merit order
- Java-Bali 2040 merit order
- Java-Bali 2030 merit order
- Sumatra 2020 merit order
- Sumatra 2030 merit order
- Sumatra 2040 merit order
- Indonesia provincial map
- Power infrastructure – West and Central Java
- Power infrastructure – East Java and Bali
- Power infrastructure – Central Sumatra
- Power infrastructure – Aceh and North Sumatra
- Indonesia GDP growth and power sales growth
- Indonesia power sales
- Java-Bali: power transmission capacity across regions
- Sumatra: power transmission capacity across regions
- Java-Bali coal growth for high and low case
- Java-Bali coal demand sensitivity on gas in power
What's included
This report contains:
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