Malaysia power and renewables markets long-term outlook 2019 Report

Commodity Market Report 25 June 2019

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Report summary

Key report themes: 1) The Malaysian government announced its third 500-MW large-scale solar (LSS3) tender in February 2019, with bidding to close in August. 2) Power market liberalisation moves faster than expected with the gas system operator set to be independent by this year. 3) The federal government agreed in principle to return Sabah Electricity Sdn Bhd (SESB) to Sabah earlier this year. 4) We have reduced our generic coal capacity forecast by a total of 1,600 MW between 2025 and 2030.

Energy Commission launches the third large-scale solar tender
Power market liberalisation moves faster than expected
Lower coal build post-2025 in our forecast
Sabah electricity firm to be returned to Sabah
Data summary
Energy policy
- Policy drivers
- Fuel mix
- Renewables
- Pricing
Malaysia power market regulation
- Generation
- Transmission
- Distribution and retail
Malaysia power market value chain
Policy
- Renewables
- COP21 INDC target
Capacity and reserve margin
- Available capacity and reserve margin
- Peninsular Malaysia
- Sarawak
- Sabah
Breakeven cost by technology
New-build economics by technology
- SRMC analysis – Peninsular Malaysia
Peninsular Malaysia power transmission infrastructure
- Power infrastructure – current
- Thailand link
- Singapore link
- Power infrastructure – map
- Power infrastructure – planned and possible
- Sumatra to Peninsular Malaysia
- Peninsular Malaysia to Singapore
East Malaysia power transmission infrastructure
- Power infrastructure – current
- Sarawak
- Sabah
- Power infrastructure – map
- Power infrastructure – planned and possible
- Sarawak
- Sabah
- Sarawak to West Kalimantan
- Sarawak to Brunei
- Sabah to North Kalimantan
Power demand
Annual generation forecast
- Peninsular Malaysia
- East Malaysia
Plant utilisation (capacity factor)
- Peninsular Malaysia
- East Malaysia
- Sarawak
- Sabah
Transmission utilisation across regions
- Thailand link
- Singapore link
- West Kalimantan link
Captive power
- Captive power demand by region
- Current captive capacity
End-user tariffs
Average annual system short-run cost
Breakeven cost forecast
GDP sensitivity on gas demand (Peninsular Malaysia)
Coal sensitivity on gas demand (Peninsular Malaysia)

Tables and charts

This report includes 46 images and tables including:

Malaysia power available capacity
Malaysia power market balance
Malaysia gas demand by sector

Key changes to analysis from H2 2018 publication
GDP forecast – Malaysia
Malaysia's energy policy and regulatory structure
Feed-in tariffs
Breakeven cost (LRMC) based on technology (2020 prices)
New plant economics by technology (LRMC)
Power sales growth, GDP growth and electricity intensity factor
Power sales by region
Peninsular Malaysia grid generation by fuel
East Malaysia grid generation by fuel
Peninsular Malaysia electricity prices
Peninsular Malaysia’s average electricity prices
Peninsular Malaysia average annual short-term generation costs by system and plant type
Average end-user power breakeven cost (real 2015)
GDP growth assumptions for high and low case
Power demand sensitivity on gas
Coal growth assumptions for high and low cases
Coal demand sensitivity on gas in the power sector
Major energy legislation
Capacity: renewables vs non-renewables
Generation: renewables vs non-renewables
Capacity: renewables by fuel
Generation: renewables by fuel
COP21 INDC target
Emissions in the power sector
Contribution of gas and coal in the power sector
Existing and planned capacity
Capacity by plant type and peak load
Reserve margin by region
Available capacity by region
Peninsular Malaysia 2020 merit order
Peninsular Malaysia 2030 merit order
Peninsular Malaysia 2040 merit order
Peninsular Malaysia power infrastructure
East Malaysia power infrastructure
Peninsular Malaysia annual capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
Sarawak annual capacity factor (% utilisation)
Sabah annual capacity factor (% utilisation)
Power exports from Peninsular to Thailand and Singapore
Power exports from Sarawak to West Kalimantan
Malaysia captive power sales by region
Peninsular Malaysia captive power by plant type (2014)