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Midwest Power & Renewables markets long-term outlook H1 2015

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Report summary

North American power markets are adapting as demand growth struggles against energy efficiency improvements and demand response programs. Economics of wind and solar are improving as within the next decade utility scale solar becomes attractive from a purely economic standpoint in many regions. Coal capacity that has survived MATS and CSPAR are also under threat from low natural gas prices. Further the industry awaits EPA s CPP announcement requiring reductions in carbon in 2020.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Midwest Regional Market Overview.pdf

    PDF 5.46 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Capacity Prices Midwest 5 31 2015.xls

    XLS 684.50 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Coal Clean Equipment Data Midwest 5 31 2015.xls

    XLS 431.50 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Coal Retirements Midwest 5 31 2015.xls

    XLS 138.00 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Delivered Fuel Prices Nominal Midwest 5 31 2015.xls

    XLS 327.50 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Delivered Fuel Prices Real Midwest 5 31 2015.xls

    XLS 327.00 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Emission Prices Nominal Midwest 5 31 2015.xls

    XLS 132.50 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Emission Prices Real Midwest 5 31 2015.xls

    XLS 132.50 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Load Forecast Midwest 5 31 2015.xls

    XLS 6.27 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO MacroEconomics Assumptions Midwest 5 31 2015.xls

    XLS 1.79 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Prices Sparks IHR Darks Nominal Midwest 5 31 2015.xls

    XLS 14.00 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Prices Sparks IHR Darks Real Midwest 5 31 2015.xls

    XLS 14.01 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Renewable Energy Credit Prices Midwest 5 31 2015.xls

    XLS 4.56 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO State RPS Targets Midwest 5 31 2015.xls

    XLS 2.38 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Supply Demand Energy Midwest 5 31 2015.xls

    XLS 2.64 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Transmission Projects in Base Case Midwest 5 31 2015.xls

    XLS 95.00 KB

  • Document

    Midwest Power & Renewables markets long-term outlook H1 2015

    ZIP 18.59 MB

  • Document

    Midwest Power & Renewables markets long-term outlook H1 2015

    PDF 1.83 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 96.40 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 1.02 MB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 211.19 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 190.07 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 164.35 KB

  • Document

    Emissions

    PDF 102.58 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 91.87 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 82.40 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 132.36 KB

  • Document

    Capacity Prices

    PDF 330.82 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Policy and regulation
  • Demand
  • Costs
  • Supply
  • Emissions
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Trade
  • Prices
  • Capacity Prices

Tables and charts

This report includes 34 images and tables including:

Images

  • Figure 17: US Emissions History and Forecast
  • Figure 18: Change in Emissions
  • Figure 19: Regional supply and demand balances
  • Figure 2 GDP growth and electric demand growth linkage
  • Figure 3: State retail sales percentage above/below pre-recession levels
  • Figure 4: Domestic Energy and its impacts : Resurgence of Industrial Demand
  • Figure 5: Current demand response saturation by market as percent of peak
  • Figure 9: US coal demand by sector
  • Figure 12: Comparison of Wood Mackenzie assumed coal retirements over previous forecasts
  • Figure 13: Installed wind capability
  • Figure 14: Large Scale Solar
  • Figure 15: US generation outlook by fuel class
  • Figure 16: Changes in generation by region 2014-2035
  • Figure 1: CPP Compliance Timeline
  • Figure 6: Henry Hub outlook
  • Figure 7: Price outlook and marginal plays
  • Figure 10: FOB coal price forecast (Real 2015 US$)
  • Figure 11: Base Case assumed carbon price
  • Figure 20: Supply Demand Balances: H1 2015 vs H2 2014
  • Figure 21: MISO Capacity Price Outlook
  • Figure 22: Changes in the Variable Resource Requirement (VRR) curve:
  • Figure 28: Supply Demand Balance
  • Figure 29: NYISO Cap Price forecast
  • Capacity Prices: Image 11
  • Figure 31: ERCOT resource economics for new generating capacity
  • Figure 32: SERC Southeast resource economics for new generating capacity
  • Figure 26: ISONE Supply Demand Balances: H1 2015 vs H2 2014
  • Figure 27: ISONE capacity price outlook
  • Figure 23: COMED supply curve:
  • Figure 24: PJM COMED and EMAAC Capacity Prices
  • Capacity Prices: Image 6

Tables

  • Table 1: Environmental Policy Assumptions
  • Table 2: ORDC Impacts in August of 2014
  • Table 3 NYISO ICAP Parameters

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