Commodity Market Report
No help from the weather: ERCOT power and renewables short term outlook August 2017
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Despite bullish fundamentals for natural gas, moderate weather this year has kept prices in check, revising prices down through the end of the year, with additional pressures in 2018 and 2019. This combined with other fundamentals and the impact of hurricanes Harvey and Irma keep pressure on power prices through much of the forecast. In terms of supply, we continue to add more wind in the Midcontinent region as developers focus where costs are the lowest and PTC revenues highest.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
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Fundamentals
- 2018: all about supply
- 2019: Onset of US LNG shut-ins
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Generation balances and prices
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Hurricanes Irma and Harvey impact near term demand forecast
- Demand
- Supply
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East and ERCOT
- Generation
- Prices and heat rates
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WECC
- Supply and demand
- Prices and generation
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Hurricanes Irma and Harvey impact near term demand forecast
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Scenario Overview
- Figure 5: North American power generation balances and fuel prices
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Scenario Overview: Table 1
- Figure 1: Changes in Eastern power market fundamentals (Relative to July 2017 STO)
- Figure 2: Relative changes in Eastern markets’ power price metrics (Relative to July 2017 STO)
- Figure 3: Changes in WECC power market fundamentals (Relative to July 2017 STO)
- Figure 4: Relative changes in WECC markets’ power price metrics (Relative to July 2017 STO)
What's included
This report contains:
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