Commodity market report
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8 Pages

No help from the weather:  ERCOT power and renewables short term outlook August 2017


No help from the weather:  ERCOT power and renewables short term outlook August 2017

Report summary

Despite bullish fundamentals for natural gas, moderate weather this year has kept prices in check, revising prices down through the end of the year, with additional pressures in 2018 and 2019. This combined with other fundamentals and the impact of hurricanes Harvey and Irma keep pressure on power prices through much of the forecast.  In terms of supply, we continue to add more wind in the Midcontinent region as developers focus where costs are the lowest and PTC revenues highest.  


What's included?

This report includes 7 file(s)

  • No help from the weather: ERCOT power and renewables short term outlook August 2017 PDF - 357.43 KB 8 Pages, 1 Tables, 4 Figures
  • 201708 STO Base Case Delivered Fuel Prices Nominal ERCOT 8 31 2017.xlsx XLSX - 117.38 KB
  • 201708 STO Base Case Delivered Fuel Prices Real ERCOT 8 31 2017.xlsx XLSX - 117.42 KB
  • 201708 STO Base Case Load Forecast ERCOT 8 31 2017.xlsx XLSX - 2.50 MB
  • 201708 STO Base Case Prices Sparks IHR Darks Nominal ERCOT 8 31 2017.xlsx XLSX - 803.29 KB
  • 201708 STO Base Case Prices Sparks IHR Darks Real ERCOT 8 31 2017.xlsx XLSX - 2.50 MB
  • 201708 STO Base Case Short Term Fundamentals ERCOT 8 31 2017.xlsx XLSX - 199.86 KB

Description

The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
  • Fundamentals
    • 2018: all about supply
    • 2019: Onset of US LNG shut-ins
  • Generation balances and prices
    • Hurricanes Irma and Harvey impact near term demand forecast
      • Demand
      • Supply
    • East and ERCOT
      • Generation
      • Prices and heat rates
    • WECC
      • Supply and demand
      • Prices and generation
  • Scenario Overview
    • Figure 5: North American power generation balances and fuel prices

In this report there are 5 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Fundamentals
  • Generation balances and prices
    • Figure 1: Changes in Eastern power market fundamentals (Relative to July 2017 STO)
    • Figure 2: Relative changes in Eastern markets’ power price metrics (Relative to July 2017 STO)
    • Figure 3: Changes in WECC power market fundamentals (Relative to July 2017 STO)
    • Figure 4: Relative changes in WECC markets’ power price metrics (Relative to July 2017 STO)
  • Scenario Overview
    • Scenario Overview: Table 1
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