Commodity Market Report

No help from the weather: WECC power and renewables short term outlook August 2017

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15 September 2017

No help from the weather: WECC power and renewables short term outlook August 2017

Report summary

Despite bullish fundamentals for natural gas, moderate weather this year has kept prices in check, revising prices down through the end of the year, with additional pressures in 2018 and 2019. This combined with other fundamentals and the impact of hurricanes Harvey and Irma keep pressure on power prices through much of the forecast.  In terms of supply, we continue to add more wind in the Midcontinent region as developers focus where costs are the lowest and PTC revenues highest.  

Why buy this report?

Although a year of moderate weather kept energy prices stable, the solar eclipse and intense Atlantic hurricane season were a disruptive force to more than just the communities they affected. This short-term power forecast can help you:

  • Identify significant trends across regional power markets
  • Understand the immediate and near-term effects of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma on our power demand outlook
  • Learn why Henry Hub prices are trending low, and why we expect a rally
  • See where rising wind power over the last year has been built out across the US

Our growing presence as power and renewables experts is supported by more than 40 years in the energy analysis space, and by dedicated power analysts located in niche markets throughout the world.

This short-term outlook for power and renewables includes:

  • Base cases outlooks for fuel price, load forecast, price and other fundamentals
  • Near-term impacts of recent Atlantic Hurricanes Harvey and Irma
  • North American power supply, demand, generation balances and price outlook

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • 2018: all about supply
    • 2019: Onset of US LNG shut-ins
    • Hurricanes Irma and Harvey impact near term demand forecast
      • Demand
      • Supply
    • East and ERCOT
      • Generation
      • Prices and heat rates
    • WECC
      • Supply and demand
      • Prices and generation
    • Figure 5: North American power generation balances and fuel prices

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:

  • Scenario Overview: Table 1
  • Figure 1: Changes in Eastern power market fundamentals (Relative to July 2017 STO)
  • Figure 2: Relative changes in Eastern markets’ power price metrics (Relative to July 2017 STO)
  • Figure 3: Changes in WECC power market fundamentals (Relative to July 2017 STO)
  • Figure 4: Relative changes in WECC markets’ power price metrics (Relative to July 2017 STO)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    201708 STO Base Case Delivered Fuel Prices Nominal WECC 8 31 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 123.66 KB

  • Document

    201708 STO Base Case Delivered Fuel Prices Real WECC 8 31 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 123.83 KB

  • Document

    201708 STO Base Case Load Forecast WECC 8 31 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 2.58 MB

  • Document

    201708 STO Base Case Prices Sparks IHR Darks Nominal WECC 8 31 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 1.09 MB

  • Document

    201708 STO Base Case Prices Sparks IHR Darks Real WECC 8 31 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 2.81 MB

  • Document

    201708 STO Base Case Short Term Fundamentals WECC 8 31 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 522.75 KB

  • Document

    No help from the weather: WECC power and renewables short term outlook August 2017

    PDF 812.71 KB

  • Document

    No help from the weather: WECC power and renewables short term outlook August 2017

    ZIP 7.22 MB