Commodity Market Report

NYMEX sensitivity case developed from the Mexico gas, power and renewables 2021 outlook to 2050

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17 August 2021

NYMEX sensitivity case developed from the Mexico gas, power and renewables 2021 outlook to 2050

Report summary

This “NYMEX” case represents the use of the New York Mercantile Exchange futures gas prices and the impact on Mexico’s power sector long-term outlook. Wood Mackenzie’s gas prices forecast – used as a primary input in our Base Case (Mexico gas, power and renewables 2021 outlook to 2050) – shows Henry Hub prices to remain close to US$2.89/MMBtu until 2030. We forecast Henry Hub to take a circuitous route to reach over US$4/ MMBtu by 2050 – not dissimilar to our prior outlook. However, three distinct market balancing mechanisms play critical roles in our Henry Hub price trajectory: upgraded associated supply, sustained export growth, and energy transition efforts. In contrast, NYMEX’s future gas prices consider a flatter and steadier trend, ranging between US$2.40/MMBtu and US$2.70/MMBtu in the long term.

Table of contents

  • This NYMEX case represents the use of the New York Mercantile Exchange futures gas prices and the impact on Mexico’s power sector long-term outlook.

Tables and charts

This report includes 4 images and tables including:

  • NYMEX vs. Wood Mackenzie’s Henry Hub gas price forecast
  • Annual average LMPs in key regions (NYMEX case vs. Base Case)
  • Annual and Monthly Energy Prices’ Absolute Delta in key regions (NYMEX case vs. Base Case)
  • Annual and Monthly Energy Prices’ Percentage Delta in key regions (NYMEX case vs Base Case)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Mexico GPR 2021 Outlook To 2050 NYMEX Sensitivity Case Avg Day Month 8 13 2021.xlsx

    XLSX 4.26 MB

  • Document

    Mexico GPR 2021 Outlook To 2050 NYMEX Sensitivity Case Capacity Prices Mexico 8 13 2021.xlsx

    XLSX 92.20 KB

  • Document

    Mexico GPR 2021 Outlook To 2050 NYMEX Sensitivity Case Clean Energy Compliance Mexico 8 13 2021.xlsx

    XLSX 67.29 KB

  • Document

    Mexico GPR 2021 Outlook To 2050 NYMEX Sensitivity Case Delivered Fuel Prices Nominal Mexico 8 13 2021.xlsx

    XLSX 254.06 KB

  • Document

    Mexico GPR 2021 Outlook To 2050 NYMEX Sensitivity Case Delivered Fuel Prices Real Mexico 8 13 2021.xlsx

    XLSX 255.81 KB

  • Document

    Mexico GPR 2021 Outlook To 2050 NYMEX Sensitivity Case Load Forecast Mexico 8 13 2021.xlsx

    XLSX 99.60 KB

  • Document

    Mexico GPR 2021 Outlook To 2050 NYMEX Sensitivity Case Prices Sparks IHR Darks Nominal Mexico 8 13 2021.xlsx

    XLSX 3.62 MB

  • Document

    Mexico GPR 2021 Outlook To 2050 NYMEX Sensitivity Case Prices Sparks IHR Darks Real Mexico 8 13 2021.xlsx

    XLSX 5.22 MB

  • Document

    Mexico GPR 2021 Outlook To 2050 NYMEX Sensitivity Case Supply Demand Energy Mexico 8 13 2021.xlsx

    XLSX 568.91 KB

  • Document

    NYMEX sensitivity case developed from the Mexico gas, power and renewables 2021 outlook to 2050

    PDF 1.05 MB