Commodity Market Report
NYMEX sensitivity case developed from the Mexico gas, power and renewables Strategic Planning Outlook 2023
Report summary
This “NYMEX” case represents the use of the New York Mercantile Exchange futures gas prices and its impact on our long-term outlook on Mexico’s power sector. Wood Mackenzie’s gas price forecast – used as a primary input in our Base Case (Mexico gas, power and renewables strategic planning outlook) – indicates Henry Hub prices averaging US$3.1/MMBtu from 2023-2025. The anticipated medium-term surge in North American LNG exports pushes Henry Hub prices to average US$3.7/MMBtu in the 2026-2035 period. In contrast, NYMEX futures gas prices consider a higher price short-term price path, keeping Henry Hub closer to US$3.7/MMBtu through the 2024-2027 period and a marginally lower price of US$3.6/MMBtu for 2026-2035.
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