Commodity Market Report
NYMEX sensitivity case developed from the Mexico gas, power and renewables Strategic Planning Outlook 2023
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Report summary
This “NYMEX” case represents the use of the New York Mercantile Exchange futures gas prices and its impact on our long-term outlook on Mexico’s power sector. Wood Mackenzie’s gas price forecast – used as a primary input in our Base Case (Mexico gas, power and renewables strategic planning outlook) – indicates Henry Hub prices averaging US$3.1/MMBtu from 2023-2025. The anticipated medium-term surge in North American LNG exports pushes Henry Hub prices to average US$3.7/MMBtu in the 2026-2035 period. In contrast, NYMEX futures gas prices consider a higher price short-term price path, keeping Henry Hub closer to US$3.7/MMBtu through the 2024-2027 period and a marginally lower price of US$3.6/MMBtu for 2026-2035.
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