Commodity Market Report

NYMEX sensitivity case developed from the Mexico gas, power, and renewables investment horizon outlook to 2032

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13 January 2022

NYMEX sensitivity case developed from the Mexico gas, power, and renewables investment horizon outlook to 2032

Report summary

This “NYMEX” case represents the use of the New York Mercantile Exchange futures gas prices and the impact on Mexico’s power sector long-term outlook. Wood Mackenzie’s gas prices forecast – used as a primary input in our Base Case (Mexico gas, power, and renewables investment horizon outlook to 2032) – shows Henry Hub prices back to near US$3/MMBtu by 2024. Although substantial demand for North American LNG exports has returned, the post-pandemic demand recovery has created tightness in the coal market, boosting power burns for gas, and operators are ramping up production slower than expected. We anticipate many of the dynamics set to reverse course in the near term, and the price premium in today’s market will disappear in a few years. In contrast, NYMEX’s future gas prices consider a steadier but increasing trend, growing toward surpassing the US$3/MMBtu mark around 2034.

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What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Mexico GPR 2021 Outlook To 2032 NYMEX Sensitivity Case Avg Day Month 1 12 2022.xlsx

    XLSX 4.27 MB

  • Document

    Mexico GPR 2021 Outlook To 2032 NYMEX Sensitivity Case Capacity Prices Mexico 1 12 2022.xlsx

    XLSX 86.17 KB

  • Document

    Mexico GPR 2021 Outlook To 2032 NYMEX Sensitivity Case Clean Energy Compliance Mexico 1 12 2022.xlsx

    XLSX 67.03 KB

  • Document

    Mexico GPR 2021 Outlook To 2032 NYMEX Sensitivity Case Delivered Fuel Prices Nominal Mexico 1 12 2022.xlsx

    XLSX 250.69 KB

  • Document

    Mexico GPR 2021 Outlook To 2032 NYMEX Sensitivity Case Delivered Fuel Prices Real Mexico 1 12 2022.xlsx

    XLSX 253.33 KB

  • Document

    Mexico GPR 2021 Outlook To 2032 NYMEX Sensitivity Case Load Forecast Mexico 1 12 2022.xlsx

    XLSX 98.71 KB

  • Document

    Mexico GPR 2021 Outlook To 2032 NYMEX Sensitivity Case Prices Sparks IHR Darks Nominal Mexico 1 12 2022.xlsx

    XLSX 3.57 MB

  • Document

    Mexico GPR 2021 Outlook To 2032 NYMEX Sensitivity Case Prices Sparks IHR Darks Real Mexico 1 12 2022.xlsx

    XLSX 5.17 MB

  • Document

    Mexico GPR 2021 Outlook To 2032 NYMEX Sensitivity Case Supply Demand Energy Mexico 1 12 2022.xlsx

    XLSX 549.49 KB

  • Document

    NYMEX sensitivity case developed from the Mexico gas, power, and renewables investment horizon outlook to 2032

    PDF 1.34 MB