Southeast power markets short-term outlook January 2015
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Table of contents
- Executive summary
-
Supply
- Tightening fundamentals point to natural gas pricing upside for the balance of winter
-
Natural gas pricing
- Winter natural gas withdrawal rates to rise as weather driven demand should outpace a mild December
- Winter 2015-'16 and 2016
- Oil price declines and US E&P response
-
Coal pricing
- Falling oil prices putting downward pressure on delivered coal costs
- Coal plant retirements
-
- Some plants slated for retirement in PJM may live to see another year of utilization
-
Nuclear supply
- Figure 1: US nuclear refuelling schedule
-
Renewable supply
- Renewable build-out could see some headwinds in 2015 beyond phase out of the federal PTC
-
Fossil fired power generation balances
- Changing roles: lower gas prices push coal to the margin as natural gas shifts to baseload in some markets
- Lower gas prices also induce gas on gas competition in addition to coal to gas switching
- Coal utilization constraints alter inter-zonal market competitiveness
- Impact on utilization and values
- Figure 4: Change in operations and value for regional operating plants by technology
-
Prices
- ERCOT
- Northeast
- Midwest
- Southeast
- WECC
- Scenario Overview
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Scenario Overview: Table 1
- Figure 5: ERCOT historical and forecast all-in energy price outlook
- Figure 6: New York historical and forecast all-in energy price outlook
- Figure 7: New England historical and forecast all-in energy price outlook
- Figure 8: PJM historical and forecast all-in energy price outlook
- Figure 9: MISO historical and forecast all-in energy price outlook
- Figure 10: Southeast historical and forecast all-in energy price outlook
- Figure 11: WECC historical and forecast all-in energy price outlook
- Supply: Image 1
- Supply: Image 2
- Supply: Image 3
- Supply: Image 4
- 2 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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