The Brazilian Day of Forgiveness Report

Insight 17 October 2023

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Report summary

The Day of Forgiveness in Brazil is a legal measure that allowed power developers to either revoke their licenses and cancel signed contracts or postpone the start of their plant's operational date. The measure aimed to regularise the market situation, which faced unprecedented default and a long interconnection queue. This report provides clients with a comprehensive explanation of the market context that led to the need for a Forgiveness Day, the current status of the interconnection queue following the publication of the measure, the remaining transmission bottlenecks and opportunities for renewable project developers going forward.

Executive Summary
Introduction
- The race for gold and the fight for a place in the grid
- Physical guarantee (GF) vs demand projections
- New license and interconnection requests after the end of subsidies for renewable projects was announced
- Regulatory flow that renewable projects must follow in order to obtain the permit to use the electricity grid
- (a) Existing contracted capacity of the transmission system (CUST) by State. (b) Market share (%) of existing CUST
- The Yom Kippur of renewable developers
- (a) Day of Forgiveness: Total capacity (MW) by state. (b) Construction status (%) of the Day of Forgiveness projects
- Day of Forgiveness: Total capacity (MW) in the interconnection queue by state
- What is next for renewable projects in Brazil?
- Cumulative capacity in the interconnection queue versus total transmission capacity by state