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WECC power markets long-term outlook H1 2019: Who's the greenest? Accelerated state plans for renewables pressure prices

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02 August 2019

WECC power markets long-term outlook H1 2019: Who's the greenest? Accelerated state plans for renewables pressure prices

Report summary

Although power demand growth has been constrained, as the step-change of energy efficiency gains begin to moderate, signs of an increasing demand recovery are continuing to emerge. Still, pressure from increasing renewable integration, constrained natural gas prices, and additional negative burdens are beginning to test the reliability of select markets. Despite some of these integration challenges, green states are now challenging the industry to meet very deep decarbonization goals.

Table of contents

  • Natural gas market shows resilience in the face of associated gas although price forecast projects lower overall vs H2 2018 in the long term
  • This outlook continues to assume a federal carbon price in the US starting 2028. This will also serve as a backstop floor price for all states under regional programs in the future.
  • More regions and states are looking to price carbon or increase carbon targets in the absence of federal legislation including New Jersey into RGGI. All Canadian provinces are subject to a carbon price starting 2019 based on provincial policies or federal backstop prices.
  • Technology LCOEs (levelized cost of energy):Cost of mature solar and wind technologies now below gas technologies across geographies in NA; expected to stay that way despite phase down of subsidies.
    • 2019 has already begun to deliver hints as to which regions may be at risk to reliability and resiliency events in the near to mid-term. In ERCOT and California intra-day price volatility is pointing to need for more reserves sooner rather than later. While in MISO and PJM, baseload generation failed to see significant prices this winter, despite renewables only able to contribute little to peak hours.
    • Renewable build out continues to supress prices. Northeastern markets are at more risk to lower pricing as mandates look to leverage off shore wind development. Combined wind and solar development will constrain prices in many markets.

Tables and charts

This report includes 3 images and tables including:

  • Figure 1: H1 2019 vs H2 2018 forecast henry hub price
  • Figure 2: LCOE ($/MWh) forecast for various technologies
  • Figure 3: Battery Cost Forecast

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    WECC power markets long-term outlook H1 2019: Who's the greenest? Accelerated state plans for renewables pressure prices

    ZIP 21.13 MB

  • Document

    NAPRS_LTO_Base Case_Delivered_Fuel_Prices_Nominal_WECC_7_31_2019.xlsx

    XLSX 444.79 KB

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    NAPRS_LTO_Base Case_Delivered_Fuel_Prices_Real_WECC_7_31_2019.xlsx

    XLSX 450.26 KB

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    NAPRS_LTO_Base Case_Emission_Prices_Nominal_WECC_7_31_2019.xlsx

    XLSX 47.98 KB

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    NAPRS_LTO_Base Case_Emission_Prices_Real_WECC_7_31_2019.xlsx

    XLSX 48.75 KB

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    NAPRS_LTO_Base Case_Emissions_WECC_7_31_2019.xlsx

    XLSX 102.53 KB

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    NAPRS_LTO_Base Case_Load_Forecast_WECC_7_31_2019.xlsx

    XLSX 2.70 MB

  • Document

    NAPRS_LTO_Base Case_Macroeconomics_WECC_7_31_2019.xlsx

    XLSX 129.45 KB

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    NAPRS_LTO_Base Case_Supply_Demand_Energy_WECC_7_31_2019.xlsx

    XLSX 1.06 MB

  • Document

    NAPRS_LTO_Base Case_Coal_Retirements_WECC_7_31_2019.xlsx

    XLSX 159.54 KB

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    NAPRS_LTO_Base_Case_Prices_Sparks_IHR_Darks_Nominal_WECC_7_31_2019_.xlsx

    XLSX 6.23 MB

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    NAPRS_LTO_Base_Case_Prices_Sparks_IHR_Darks_Real_WECC_7_31_2019_.xlsx

    XLSX 7.87 MB

  • Document

    NAPRS_LTO_Base_Case_State_RPS_Targets_WECC_7_31_2019.xlsx

    XLSX 745.49 KB

  • Document

    NAPRS_LTO_Renewable_Energy_Credit_Prices_WECC_7_31_2019.xlsx

    XLSX 903.82 KB

  • Document

    NAPRS_Base_Case_Capacity_Prices_WECC_7_31_2019.xlsx

    XLSX 226.47 KB

  • Document

    2019 H1 West Regional Market Outlook.pdf

    PDF 2.69 MB

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