Australia product markets 2021 Outlook to 2050

In 2021, Australia is expected to have a net deficit of 539,000 b/d in key products (compared to -407,000 b/d in 2020 and -481,000 b/d in 2019) . We expect the net total deficit to increase up to 2030 following the closure of the Kwinana and Altona refineries. Thereafter, declining transport fuel demand (the latter resulting from increased EV penetration and higher fuel efficiency) will start to reduce the net deficit to -372,000 by 2050. Utilisation rates for the remaining two refineries will remain above 90% until end of this decade, after a decline will set it in line with falling demand. As a result of above Australia will become increasingly reliant on imports of clean fuels, especially diesel / gasoil, up to 2030.