Australia product markets long-term outlook H1 2019

In 2018, Australia had a total products deficit of 585,000 b/d. We expect deficits of total products to grow through our forecast to 2040 with demand growth combined with the no change to supply. Middle distillate production has been weakened by the closures of Kurnell and Bulwer lsland refineries in 2014 and 2015 respectively, with their deficits widening significantly from 2015 on-wards. With growing deficits in middle distillates, Australia will tap into existing supply sources in Asia Pacific for more import volumes and take advantage of China's growing 10 ppm export availability.