Commodity Market Report
Canada retail fuels long-term outlook
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Report summary
Canada is a mature market for oil products and a net exporter of gasoline and diesel. Although the share of EVs in the passenger car parc is relatively low today, we expect this share to grow rapidly beyond 2030 as the ban on the sale of new ICE vehicles comes into force in 2035. This will lead to a material reduction in demand for carbon-based road fuels. As increasingly more stringent decarbonisation policies are enacted, biofuel demand is expected to grow out to late 2030s. Beyond 2040, demand falls as there is a shift to alternatively-powered vehicles. This presents an opportunity for supplying the domestic low carbon fuel sector.
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