Commodity Market Report

China product markets long-term outlook H1 2019

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24 July 2019

China product markets long-term outlook H1 2019

Report summary

China (excluding Hong Kong) was deficit in LPG, naphtha and fuel oil and surplus in gasoline, jet fuel and diesel/gasoil in 2018. We expect China to add net refining capacity at a pace of 251,000 b/d every year during the period from 2019 to 2025. This level of refinery capacity additions is much lower than in recent years. Slower capacity addition in China is driven by a combination of capacity closures in the independent ('teapot') refining sector and a slower oil demand growth outlook for China, which impacts refinery investment projects in the form of project delays and cancellations. As the need to meet transport fuels demand growth reduces, we expect future refinery configurations in China to be driven by the needs from the petrochemical sector. Future chemical complexes are expected to be integrated with refining for chemical feedstock integration.

Table of contents

  • LPG
  • Naphtha
  • Gasoline
  • Jet/other kerosene
  • Diesel/gasoil
  • Fuel oil
    • Gasoline
    • Diesel/gasoil
    • Fuel oil
    • Taxes and pricing mechanism
    • Retail fuel pricing mechanism
    • Import and export system
  • Refinery infrastructure
  • Refinery investments
    • Crude trade
    • Crude quality
    • NGLs
    • Biofuels

Tables and charts

This report includes 13 images and tables including:

  • Liquid road fuel demand
  • Total car parc (passenger vehicle stock)
  • Share of car parc by fuel type
  • North China
  • Shandong
  • South China
  • West China
  • Refinery capacity investments 2019-2025
  • Refinery throughputs and utilisation
  • Non-refinery supply by product
  • Non-refinery supply by source
  • Historical net product trade
  • Product balances – all supply versus demand

What's included

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