China product markets long-term outlook H1 2019 Report

Commodity Market Report 24 July 2019

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Report summary

China (excluding Hong Kong) was deficit in LPG, naphtha and fuel oil and surplus in gasoline, jet fuel and diesel/gasoil in 2018. We expect China to add net refining capacity at a pace of 251,000 b/d every year during the period from 2019 to 2025. This level of refinery capacity additions is much lower than in recent years. Slower capacity addition in China is driven by a combination of capacity closures in the independent ('teapot') refining sector and a slower oil demand growth outlook for China, which impacts refinery investment projects in the form of project delays and cancellations. As the need to meet transport fuels demand growth reduces, we expect future refinery configurations in China to be driven by the needs from the petrochemical sector. Future chemical complexes are expected to be integrated with refining for chemical feedstock integration.

LPG
Naphtha
Gasoline
Jet/other kerosene
Diesel/gasoil
Fuel oil
Fuel quality specifications
- Gasoline
- Diesel/gasoil
- Fuel oil
- Taxes and pricing mechanism
- Retail fuel pricing mechanism
- Import and export system
Refinery infrastructure
Refinery investments
Crude slate
- Crude trade
- Crude quality
Non-refinery supply
- NGLs
- Biofuels