China product markets long-term outlook H2 2019 Report

Commodity Market Report 23 January 2020

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Report summary

China (excluding Hong Kong) was deficit in LPG, naphtha and fuel oil and surplus in gasoline, jet fuel and diesel/gasoil in 2018. Oil product demand in China (excluding Hong Kong) has grown over the past decade to reach 13.15 million b/d in 2019. It is forecast to grow based on average annual GDP growth of 4.4% between 2019 and 2040, materially lower than average growth of 8.7% in the preceding decade. Oil product demand in China (excluding Hong Kong) is forecast to peak in 15.16 million b/d in 2032 and reach 14. 8 million b/d in 2040.

LPG
Naphtha
Gasoline
Jet/other kerosene
Diesel/gasoil
Fuel oil
Fuel quality specifications
- Gasoline
- Diesel/gasoil
- Fuel oil
- Taxes and pricing mechanism
- Retail fuel pricing mechanism
- Import and export system
Refinery infrastructure
Refinery investments
Crude slate
- Crude trade
Non-refinery supply
- NGLs
- Biofuels