Commodity Market Report

China product markets long-term outlook H2 2020

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29 January 2021

China product markets long-term outlook H2 2020

Report summary

China (excluding Hong Kong) was deficit in LPG, naphtha and fuel oil and surplus in gasoline, jet fuel and diesel/gasoil in 2020. Oil product demand in China (excluding Hong Kong) has grown over the past decade to 13 million b/d in 2019. However, due to the Covid-19 pandemic, we expect a year-on-year decline of 3.4% (or 450,000 b/d) for China's oil product demand in 2020. Transport oil demand has been hit the hardest while petrochemical feedstock remained robust. Looking ahead, we expect China’s oil demand to rebound by 1.3 million b/d year-on-year in 2021 and return to the growth path towards a peak of 17 million b/d in the early 2030s. By 2050, China’s oil demand is expected to decline by 16% (2.7 million b/d) from the peak. This outlook is based on average annual GDP growth of 3.7% between 2020 and 2050, which is materially lower than average growth of 8% in the preceding decade.

Table of contents

  • LPG
  • Naphtha
  • Gasoline
  • Jet/other kerosene
  • Diesel/gasoil
  • Fuel oil
    • Gasoline
    • Diesel/gasoil
    • Fuel oil
    • Taxes and pricing mechanism
    • Fuel pricing mechanism
    • Import and export system
    • Crude trade
  • Refinery infrastructure

Tables and charts

This report includes 14 images and tables including:

  • Liquid road fuel demand
  • Total car parc (passenger vehicle stock)
  • Share of car parc by fuel type
  • Overview
  • North China
  • Shandong
  • South China
  • West China
  • Refinery capacity investments 2020-2027
  • Historical net product trade
  • Refinery throughputs and utilisation
  • Non-refinery supply by product
  • Non-refinery supply by source
  • Product balances – all supply versus demand

What's included

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    China product markets long-term outlook H2 2020

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