North American refining economics will hinge on the extent of gasoline demand decline. The US rate of growth was essentially zero in 2018; with large scale efficiency gains in battery production, increasing fuel efficiency, and shifting population trends, US gasoline demand is forecast to decline from 2019 onwards. As North America’s largest market, this will ultimately shape the future refining economic picture across the world. Certain PADDs which have been priced as an island will begin to be tied to an export market, such as the Atlantic or Pacific Basins. In this report, we provide a regional breakdown of key factors driving future North American refining economics.