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US gasoline demand decline: which North American region is most at risk?

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What’s inside this report?

A detailed regional breakdown of the key factors driving future North American refining economics.

Why buy this report?

Gasoline demand decline in North America will have a crucial influence on the outlook for the global refining industry. Use this report to:

  • Track supply and demand balances for gasoline and other fuels in eight key regions across North America, from Western Canada to Mexico
  • Understand refinery economics for each region: which is most at risk as the market changes?
  • Map out the impact of future projects on gas fundamentals

We answer questions about important market developments in each of the eight regions our report covers, including:

  • Western Canada: The startup of the Northwest Redwater refinery has altered the Western Canadian clean products balance. With burgeoning LPG and transportation fuel surpluses, how will the pricing bases (and crack spreads) shift? 
  • Mexico: Refinery utilisation continues to lag, although new Mexican administration is keen to rebuff this trend. Will a 2024 startup of a 350 kb/d refinery effectively reduce dependence on refined product imports? 

Purchase the report for in-depth analysis of these factors and more.

06 February 2019

US gasoline demand decline: which North American region is most at risk?

Report summary

US gasoline demand decline will have a major impact on the country's refining economics in the coming years. The US rate of growth was essentially zero in 2018; with large scale efficiency gains in battery production, increasing fuel efficiency, and shifting population trends, US gasoline demand is forecast to decline from 2019 onwards. As North America’s largest market, this will ultimately shape the future refining economic picture across the world. Certain PADDs which have been priced as an island will begin to be tied to an export market, such as the Atlantic or Pacific Basins. In this report, we provide a regional breakdown of key factors driving future North American refining economics.

Table of Contents

  1. Executive summary
  2. Western Canada
  3. Eastern Canada
  4. US East Coast (PADD I)
  5. US Midcontinent (PADD II)
  7. US Rockies (PADD IV)
  8. US West Coast (PADD V)
  9. Mexico

Tables and Charts

  1. Canadian Car Parc (thousands of cars)
  2. Western Canada clean product balance (kb/d)
  3. Western Canada LPG Balance (kb/d)
  4. West Canada gasoline netbacked cracks vs WCS ($/bbl)
  5. West Canada diesel netbacked cracks vs WCS ($/bbl)
  6. Comparative market gasoline cracks ($/bbl)
  7. Eastern Canadian gasoline demand change from 2016 (kb/d)
  8. Eastern Canadian 2017 Net Cash Margins ($/bbl)
  9. Eastern Canadian refined product infrastructure flows

Purchase the report for the full list.

Table of contents

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Tables and charts

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What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Drowning in gasoline - which North American region is most at risk.pdf

    PDF 1.77 MB