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European refinery closure threat index - delaying the inevitable?

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12 June 2017

European refinery closure threat index - delaying the inevitable?

Report summary

This insight is an update on our previous refinery closure threat analysis, completed end 2014.  The industry has changed significantly since then as we have witnessed some very strong refining margins in Europe. But is this sustainable and what does it mean for future refinery closures in the region? In the insight, we analyse how the margin environment has changed, future risks and any upside for European refining.  We also briefly look at other refineries in the Atlantic basin, which may also be at risk of closure. We then analyse in detail refineries in seven regions in Europe and discuss which assets are most at risk of closure.  

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Background
  • Change in environment since November 2014
  • Future risks to European refining
  • Is there any upside for European refining?
  • Did Wood Mackenzie get it right in terms of closures?
    • Closure threat index vs NCM
    • Overview
    • Refineries at risk
      • Refineries at risk
      • Refineries at risk
      • Refineries at risk
      • Refineries at risk
      • Refineries at risk
      • Refineries at risk
    • Refining – a changing landscape
  • Conclusions
    • Closure Threat risk factors
  • Appendix 2

Tables and charts

This report includes 26 images and tables including:

  • European refinery throughput and utilisation
  • European supply/demand balance - gasoline surplus persists*
  • Crude throughputs will decline but utilisation remains robust
  • European refinery closure threat index - delaying the inevitable?: Image 4
  • Atlantic Basin Net Cash Margin - 2015
  • 4th quartile refineries - under threat of closure
  • Refineries ranked by quartile
  • European refinery closure threat index - delaying the inevitable?: Image 6
  • Closure threat vs average 2013-2015 NCM
  • Gasoline net length by region
  • Average refinery utilisation by region, percent
  • Region: North Europe
  • Refinery NCM/closure threat ranking
  • Region: Central Europe
  • Refinery NCM/closure threat ranking
  • European refinery closure threat index - delaying the inevitable?: Image 25
  • Region: Balkans/Black Sea/Mediterranean
  • Refinery NCM/closure threat ranking
  • Region: Scandinavia/Baltics
  • Refinery NCM/closure threat ranking
  • Region: West Mediterranean
  • Refinery NCM/closure threat ranking
  • Region: North France/Atlantic coast
  • Refinery NCM/closure threat ranking
  • Region: United Kingdom/Ireland
  • Refinery NCM/closure threat ranking

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    European refinery closure threat index - delaying the inevitable?

    PDF 867.80 KB

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