Insight
European refining at the Rubicon again – which assets will make it over?
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Wood Mackenzie’s updated closure threat analysis of European refineries is now available. This exercise analyses 83 refineries in Europe, and using a range of criteria, it quantifies the risk of closure for each asset. Some of the questions this insight answers are: Which refineries are most-at-risk of closure, and what is the total capacity of these assets? Would this be enough to sustain refinery utilisation in Europe in the longer term? What reasons can keep a refinery safe, despite a high-risk score?
Table of contents
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Executive Summary
- Medium-term refining outlook
- Risk factors we have used and some we have not
- Not all refineries in the bottom quartile will actually close – what other factors do we consider?
- Refineries most at risk
- Would this be enough to get utilisation levels back on a more sustainable basis?
- Conclusion
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Appendix
- Methodology
- Overview
- Wood Mackenzie net cash margin analysis 2018
- Petrochemical integration
- Recent/future planned investments
- Forthcoming major turnaround
- Upstream integration/equity crude processing
- Carbon Intensity
- Ownership, policy and other non-market
- Strategic Value
- Community
Tables and charts
This report includes 3 images and tables including:
- 2018 NCM chart – highlighting 4th quartile assets on the closure threat analysis
- European NCM 2018 vs 2023
- Fourth quartile refineries – closure threat analysis
What's included
This report contains:
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