Insight
European refining at the Rubicon again – which assets will make it over?
Report summary
Wood Mackenzie’s updated closure threat analysis of European refineries is now available. This exercise analyses 83 refineries in Europe, and using a range of criteria, it quantifies the risk of closure for each asset. Some of the questions this insight answers are: Which refineries are most-at-risk of closure, and what is the total capacity of these assets? Would this be enough to sustain refinery utilisation in Europe in the longer term? What reasons can keep a refinery safe, despite a high-risk score?
Table of contents
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Executive Summary
- Medium-term refining outlook
- Risk factors we have used and some we have not
- Not all refineries in the bottom quartile will actually close – what other factors do we consider?
- Refineries most at risk
- Would this be enough to get utilisation levels back on a more sustainable basis?
- Conclusion
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Appendix
- Methodology
- Overview
- Wood Mackenzie net cash margin analysis 2018
- Petrochemical integration
- Recent/future planned investments
- Forthcoming major turnaround
- Upstream integration/equity crude processing
- Carbon Intensity
- Ownership, policy and other non-market
- Strategic Value
- Community
Tables and charts
This report includes 3 images and tables including:
- 2018 NCM chart – highlighting 4th quartile assets on the closure threat analysis
- European NCM 2018 vs 2023
- Fourth quartile refineries – closure threat analysis
What's included
This report contains:
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