European refining at the Rubicon again – which assets will make it over?

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Wood Mackenzie’s updated closure threat analysis of European refineries is now available. This exercise analyses 83 refineries in Europe, and using a range of criteria, it quantifies the risk of closure for each asset. Some of the questions this insight answers are: Which refineries are most-at-risk of closure, and what is the total capacity of these assets? Would this be enough to sustain refinery utilisation in Europe in the longer term? What reasons can keep a refinery safe, despite a high-risk score?

Table of contents

    • Medium-term refining outlook
    • Risk factors we have used and some we have not
    • Not all refineries in the bottom quartile will actually close – what other factors do we consider?
    • Refineries most at risk
    • Would this be enough to get utilisation levels back on a more sustainable basis?
  • Conclusion
    • Methodology
    • Overview
    • Wood Mackenzie net cash margin analysis 2018
    • Petrochemical integration
    • Recent/future planned investments
    • Forthcoming major turnaround
    • Upstream integration/equity crude processing
    • Carbon Intensity
    • Ownership, policy and other non-market
    • Strategic Value
    • Community

Tables and charts

This report includes 3 images and tables including:

  • 2018 NCM chart – highlighting 4th quartile assets on the closure threat analysis
  • European NCM 2018 vs 2023
  • Fourth quartile refineries – closure threat analysis

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    European refining at the Rubicon again – which assets will make it over?

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