From underutilisation to price uncertainty: how long will record exports to Latin America last? Report

Insight 12 July 2018

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Report summary

After two years of recession, Latin American product demand grew in 2017 for the first time, pushing refined product imports to an all time record. How long are high imports set to last? • Product demand will continue to grow 1% per year • Refinery utilisation is expected to drop again in 2018 and only recover partially in the medium term • Even with refiners maximising diesel yields, we anticipate more than 900 kb/d of diesel imports from the US by 2035. • Gasoline imports expected to reach almost 500 kb/d by 2035. Key country risks to highlight in our analysis are a further deterioration of operations in Venezuela a long with recent changes to fuel pricing policies in Argentina and Brazil.