Global product markets short-term outlook Q2 2019: Summer gasoline to the rescue

In this report we set out our forecast for refinery margins and oil product markets in Q2 2019. The implementation of IMO specification changes in 2020 will have a huge impact on the market but the timing of that impact is difficult to call. For fuel oil and gasoil we expect a reversal of recent market dynamics with HSFO demand plummeting while MGO demand grows sharply. This should provide stronger margins for most refiners but given a relatively weak outlook for Q2 margins, January 2020 and the implementation of IMO regulatory changes seem a long way off. In this report we review developments in the crude and product markets during Q1 and how our accurate our forecasts were. We provide details for the rationale behind our outlook for Q2 prices and margins and a look ahead to Q3.