Global product markets weekly: Crude supply tightness drives margins down

The dated Brent price strengthened further last week, increasing by $2.90/bbl to bring the weekly average to $73.70/bbl. The US announced that they would not be issuing further waivers for Iranian crude exports temporarily pushing front month Brent futures above $75/bbl. There was further support due to contamination of Urals supplies which could have cut European Urals imports by 1-1.5 million b/d, sending refiners scrambling to find alternative crudes. The global composite refinery margin weakened last week, falling to $3.80/bbl. Margins declined in all of our regions for all crudes and processes. The main cause was the sharp increase in crude prices with middle distillate crack spreads being the weakest performers again. The composite margin remains below the five-year range. Strong gasoline crack spreads should support margins in the coming weeks but margins will be capped by high crude prices and growing middle distillate stocks.