Global product markets weekly: European gasoline length weighs on refining margins

For the week commencing 12 February, refinery margins were mixed due to diverging crude price differentials. On a global basis, gasoline and ULSD cracks continued to weaken. Weekly stock levels for gasoline, middle distillates and residual fuel oil in the US, NW Europe, Japan, Singapore and the Middle East are expected to have drawn down. The majority of the stock draw is East of Suez and from middle distillates, with north Asia continuing to experience colder-than-normal temperatures. However, with market expectations of high exports of distillate from China and India, middle distillate cracks were subdued. Crude prices eased for the third consecutive week. The Dated Brent weekly average fell below US$63/bbl, the weakest in almost three months. We continue to expect a global stock build to occur in H1 2018 as the market reacts to stronger US production.